Probability Calculator
Calculate probabilities of events.
How this calculator works
Formula
P(A and B) = P(A) · P(B) ; P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) − P(A and B)
Method
Assumes independent events. Also reports P(neither) and P(not A).
Example
If P(A)=0.5 and P(B)=0.3, then P(A and B)=0.15, P(A or B)=0.65.
The complete guide to the Probability Calculator
Calculate probabilities of events. This guide covers exactly what Probability Calculator computes, the formula behind it, a worked example, and the mistakes that most often produce a wrong number.
How the calculation works
Assumes independent events. Also reports P(neither) and P(not A). Each input feeds directly into that model, so changing one value shows its isolated effect on the result.
The formula
The core equation is P(A and B) = P(A) · P(B) ; P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) − P(A and B). Working it by hand follows the same order of operations; the risk is arithmetic slips and rounding at intermediate steps, which the tool avoids by keeping full precision until the final display.
A worked example
If P(A)=0.5 and P(B)=0.3, then P(A and B)=0.15, P(A or B)=0.65. Enter those values above to confirm the result, then vary one input at a time to see which variable moves the outcome most.
When this calculator is the right tool
Use Probability Calculator for planning, comparison and verification — cases where the arithmetic is tedious enough that manual errors are likely, or where you want several scenarios side by side rather than a single answer.
Common mistakes to avoid
The most frequent error is a unit mismatch — annual instead of monthly figures, or the wrong measurement unit. Read the label above each field. The second is treating a single result as certain: when the number drives a real decision, re-run it with slightly more conservative assumptions and see how far the answer moves.
Reading the result critically
A result is only as good as its assumptions. Identify which input carries the most uncertainty, test a realistic worst case for it, and use the gap between the two outcomes as your planning margin rather than the headline figure alone.
Frequently asked questions
What does Probability Calculator calculate?
Calculate probabilities of events.
How accurate is the result?
The calculation uses the standard formula for this problem, so accuracy is limited only by the accuracy of your inputs and any assumptions the model makes.
Which input affects the result most?
Change one input at a time and watch the result. The variable that moves the outcome most is where you should focus your estimate.
Can I compare several scenarios?
Yes — adjust the inputs and note each result, or use the comparison and history features where the calculator offers them.